Estimating Direct and Indirect Damage to Industrial Facilities from Coastal Flooding: Case of Ulsan, Korea

As climate change accelerates, the damage caused by natural disasters to logistics and industrial facilities near coastal areas is expected to increase. This study estimates the economic damage caused by coastal inundation in Ulsan Metropolitan City in detail, based on the frequency of inundation and building types. An object-based analysis is conducted to calculate the damage by building type, and the results show that the ripple effect of the disaster accounted for the majority of the total damage. Ulsan's major industrial clusters are concentrated along the coastline, with factories accounting for 92% of the total direct damage. The results of an input-output analysis based on industry linkage tables showed that the indirect damages were 22.1, 8.6, and 3.8 times greater than the direct damages for petrochemicals, automobiles, and shipbuilding, respectively, which represent the main industries in Ulsan. The automobile industry has a large impact on employment, with ripple effects on both directly related industries and other industries. Unlike residential assets, industrial assets exhibit different damage characteristics, depending on whether coastal inundation affects a specific industry or the entire sector. Coastal areas are densely populated with multiple industries. Hence, the ripple effects on assets and employment are significant. Therefore, it is important to accurately identify industries that are highly interdependent with others in the development of effective disaster preparedness and recovery policies. The results of this study can be used as a basis for cost–benefit analyses of climate change disaster measures and policies in coastal cities.