Assessment of Ecosystem Services with numerical modelling to support groundwater dependent ecosystems and aquifer management: A demo study in the Medina del Campo Groundwater Body, Spain

The Ecosystem Services Approach (ESA) is an effective tool for evaluating humans-nature relationships, but publications on the use of ES to assess groundwater ecosystem services (GWES) are scarce. This work presents a practical example of how to apply the ESA to support groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDE) and aquifer management, using groundwater numerical modelling as assessment tool. It was performed in the NAIAD Horizon 2020 project to assess current status and potential future evolution of two GWES of the Medina del Campo Groundwater Body (Spain): the Provisioning Service Groundwater Used for Non-Drinking P urposes (APS_GUNDP), focusing on irrigation water supply, and the Regulating and Maintaining Service Regulation of Baseline Flows and Extreme Events (ARMS_RBFEE), focusing on GDE. The numerical modeling was done with MODFLOW 2005 and ModelMuse. The present-day status of APS-GUNDP was evaluated analyzing the piezometric trends from 1950 to 2018, while the ARMS_RBFEE was assessed comparing GDE areas in 2018 to those in 1956. The future evolution of both GWES until 2350 was predicted as piezometric level changes and flooded land surface under different precipitation and groundwater management scenarios. Intensive groundwater exploitation in the past led to drying GDE and boost different groundwater management measures. But natural conditions are not restored any scenario by year 2350, due to ongoing adjustment of the aquifer water balance. This work demonstrates how to use ESA to assess management actions to recover GWES.