Spatial–Temporal Pattern Evolution and Differentiation Mechanism of Urban Dual Innovation: A Case Study of China’s Three Major Urban Agglomerations

Breakthrough innovation and incremental innovation have different impacts on economic development. For regional development, it is important to find a balance in dual innovation, which entails effective coordination of allocating innovation resources and managing risks. However, little attention has been given to the spatial relationship and differentiation mechanisms between breakthrough innovation and incremental innovation. Therefore, our research takes China’s three major urban agglomerations as examples, aiming to explore the spatial–temporal pattern evolution, influencing factors, spatial relationship, and spatial organizational patterns of breakthrough innovation and incremental innovation from 2000 to 2021. The research found that the spatial distribution of urban dual innovation is affected by the law of distance decay, and the spatial distribution of incremental innovation is more polycentric than that of breakthrough innovation. In terms of the differentiation mechanism, breakthrough innovation is more affected by the innovation atmosphere, while incremental innovation is more likely to be affected by the economic foundation and built environment. Our research effectively supplements the shortcomings in the spatial relationship research of breakthrough innovation and incremental innovation and provides references for formulating innovation policies.