Research on the energy transition pathways of the transportation sector in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, China

Energy transitions is an effective way to achieve sustainable development in the transportation sector. To explore the pathways to energy transitions in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) transportation sector, the article evaluated the potential of energy savings and CO₂ emission reduction of different measures in a quantitative way, based on the long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) platform. The marginal abatement cost curves are used to visually reflect the cost-benefit of these measures, and to develop cost-effective pathways to energy transitions. The results show that the measures of transportation modes adjustment and private cars regulating should be prioritized due to the potential of significant emission reduction with good cost-effectiveness. The measures of promoting electricity and hydrogen energy have large emission reduction potential, but only those for road traffic are cost-effective, and should be treated with a lower priority. Considering the high cost, the measures of promoting biofuel should be implemented as least priority. Moreover, the measures of liquefied natural gas (LNG) application have good cost-effectiveness, as opposed to limited CO₂ emission reduction potential. It can only be used as a transitional fuel for the energy transitions. The findings and research methodology will provide theoretical support for the formulation of transportation energy transition pathways in the GBA and other regions.