Synoptic Influences on the Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall over Western Puerto Rico

Abstract The objective of this study is to understand rainfall processes over tropical islands by identifying synoptic conditions that influence the diurnal cycle of rainfall over western Puerto Rico. Summer rainfall over Puerto Rico is dominated by its afternoon peak, yet there is large variability in its behavior that remains challenging to predict. We use radiosonde and airborne data collected through the NASA Convective Processes Experiment—Aerosols and Winds (CPEX-AW) field campaign (August–September 2021) to achieve our objective, in addition to the network of surface station data over the island. We find that the background wind speed and humidity have strong influences on afternoon rainfall through different mechanisms. A stronger background wind inhibits afternoon rainfall likely by reducing land–sea thermal contrast and weakening sea-breeze convergence over the island. At the same time, an inversion layer often forms with a stronger background wind that further inhibits deep convection. When the background wind is weak and sea breezes are prominent, afternoon rainfall increases exclusively over the island, while limited rainfall appears over the surrounding ocean. However, enhanced rainfall still occurs over the island with weak sea breezes if humidity is high, accompanied by enhanced rainfall over the surrounding ocean due to the offshore movement and development of convective storms. The sources of variability in background wind and humidity are mostly independent, resulting in a wide range of synoptic conditions and associated effects on the island rainfall. This expanded understanding of the mechanisms causing variability of diurnal rainfall can lead to improved forecasts over Puerto Rico and other tropical islands.