Electrification and lower-income households in Australia: An integrated analysis of adaptive capacity and hardship

Shifting away from residential gas is important for decarbonisation, however there is little understanding of the equity implications, especially for low-income households. In this mixed methods study, we recruited a cohort of lower-income households in Australia and conducted a survey and focus group discussions to understand the barriers and enabling factors to electrifying homes. Drawing on key frameworks on energy vulnerability and adaptive capacity we show that rising energy costs shape energy hardship but can also drive some households to electrify to lower energy costs in the future. We identify home ownership and roof space as key assets influencing electrification, enabling the installation of solar panels which creates a positive feedback effect to shift to all-electric appliances. However, assets and resources alone are insufficient to enable electrification. We show the importance of trusted intermediaries and other social-relational factors for adaptation. We argue that the energy vulnerability literature, with its attention to needs and structural inequality, can enrich adaptive capacity approaches by focusing on how infrastructural politics and energy injustice shape electrification opportunities for lower-income households. We devise a relational framework based on a typological analysis to counterpose those lower-income households with strong and weak adaptive capacities, and high and low vulnerability to energy hardship. We argue that high adaptive capacity and low energy hardship can drive a virtuous cycle of upgrades to reduce the risk of energy hardship, whereas the combination of low adaptive capacity and high energy hardship can produce negative feedback that compounds hardship and makes electrification even less accessible.