Optimisation of decision-making on risk management strategy for the hydromelioration systems in biosphere reserves

Abstract The field of nature conservation in Ukraine is currently experiencing a profound crisis. In light of the mounting risks to Ukraine’s ecosystems, it is of paramount importance that conservation planning incorporates risk management strategies. In the aftermath of the Chernobyl disaster, the management of water bodies in the Exclusion Zone assumed paramount importance, given that the rivers had become the primary conduit for the transportation of radioactive substances. It is therefore imperative to evaluate the risks and vulnerabilities of climate change on Ukraine’s most developed economic sectors, population, and natural ecosystems. This will facilitate comprehension of the prospective consequences of climate change, ascertain the extent of potential losses, and inform decision-making aimed at reducing or preventing such losses in a timely manner. One of the primary challenges facing specialists at the Chornobyl Radiation and Ecological Biosphere Reserve, in addition to other organisations and enterprises of the State Agency of Ukraine on Exclusion Zone Management and scientific institutions, is the assessment of the feasibility of hydromelioration systems. It is of the utmost importance that a scientifically sound methodological approach be employed in order to ensure the reliability and validity of the results obtained through the assessment of risks and vulnerabilities to climate change. In this context, the utilisation of adaptive methodologies is of paramount importance for the development of risk management strategies. One such methodology is the Methodology for Risk Analysis and Information Management for Strategic Ecosystems (MARISCO). This article considers the potential deployment of the MARISCO adaptive method as a universal methodology for the analysis of environmental issues, with a view to informing decision-making on risk management strategies in the Chornobyl Radiation and Ecological Biosphere Reserve.