Study on the characteristics and scenario simulation of land use change in the Chaohu Lake Basin, China

Abstract Effectively evaluating the historical and future land use/cover change (LUCC) is significant for effective land use planning and management, ecological conservation, and restoration. Taking the Chaohu Lake Basin (CLB) as the study area, GIS technology and geographic detector were used to quantitatively analyze the change characteristics and driving factors of LUCC under the three periods in 2000, 2010, and 2020 of the CLB. This study aimed to comprehend the alterations that have transpired over the last two decades. In addition, the PLUS model was utilized to forecast LUCC trends under three scenarios: natural development, urban development, and ecological protection by 2030 in the CLB. The results suggest a significant decrease of the cultivated land area, while a considerable increase for the construction land area from 2000 to 2020 in the CLB. The expansion of the construction land area was mainly driven by the conversion of cultivated land area. Additionally, the slope was identified as the primary factor influencing LUCC, with q-values of 0.275, 0.266, and 0.258 in 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively. The interaction between slope and soil type, distance to the trunk road and the secondary trunk road, and GDP was strong. The explanatory capacity of socioeconomic factors demonstrated a steady increase. The simulation results indicate that a decrease in cultivated land area and an increase in construction land area still occurred by 2030 in the CLB, particularly in the urban development scenario. Nonetheless, a notable deceleration of change was appeared in the ecological protection scenario. The alterations in forest and grassland areas were not significant. However, the water bodies area continued to enlarge, although the expansion was not substantial. The study results can provide policy references for the scientific management and long-term strategic planning of land resources in the CLB.