Time-Variant Chloride Ingress Models for Probabilistic Assessment of Concrete Bridge Decks with De-Icing Salt Attack

This study is to propose time-variant probabilistic models of surface chloride and diffusion coefficient based on the survey data of 16 concrete bridge decks with the attack of de-icing salts. These models are developed, because there is no study that simultaneously considers both time-variance and probabilistic descriptors in the model for concrete bridge decks. From the study, it can be found that long-term surface chloride and its time-variant development are fitted with Log-normal and Weibull distributions, respectively. In addition, the 28-day diffusion coefficient and age factor are fitted with Log-logistic and Triangular distributions, respectively. Considering only the mean value in the models, the corrosion-free residual life of concrete bridge decks is equal to 18.3 years based on the target value of critical chloride of 1.2 kg/m 3 , whereas their cracking-free residual life is equal to 29.5 years based on the target value of critical chloride of 2.0 kg/m3. In comparison with the probabilistic analysis, it was nevertheless found that at year 18.3, there are 38% and 20% probabilities to have rebar corrosion and concrete cracking, respectively. However, at year 29.5, there are 63% and 42% probabilities to have rebar corrosion and concrete. Specifically, there are 6 and almost 7 out of 16 bridge locations having rebar corrosion in the year 18.3 and concrete cracking in the year 29.5, respectively.