Non-Stationary ETAS Model: How It Works for External Forcing

Abstract The stationary epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is based on the important empirical laws in aftershock statistics with a self-similar feature, and is therefore useful for the statistical analysis of many common earthquake occurrence series. However, because earthquake catalogs become richer, the non-stationarity arising from geophysical heterogeneity becomes more pronounced. This article discusses the utility of a model that assumes time dependence of the first two ETAS parameters, which are sensitive to the short-term prediction. The inversion analyses of the non-stationary ETAS model in this article show heuristic results for swarm earthquakes and complex mainshock–aftershock-type seismicity. The case studies demonstrate how these parameters change quantitatively in swarm seismicity associated with slow slips, increases in pore-fluid pressure such as magma and hydrothermal fluids, stress changes associated with an earthquake motion, and interseismic-induced effects due to geological properties.