Investigating the Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Land Cover and Ecosystem Service Value in the Kuye River Basin

Land cover change influences the provision of regional ecosystem services, posing a threat to regional ecological security and sustainable development. The Kuye River Basin, a vital tributary of the Yellow River Basin, has experienced significant land cover changes due to intense human activity. Building on analysing the spatiotemporal evolution of land use cover and ecosystem service values from 1990 to 2022, this study predicted the land cover structure and ecosystem service value with two future scenarios, the NDC and the EPC, to provide insights into guiding sustainable policy interventions. We found the predominant land cover types were greensward and forest land, accounting for 67.22% of the total area. Forest land, greensward, and farmland have increased, while desert, water area, and other land types have decreased from 1990 to 2022. Forest land, greensward, farmland, and water areas are the main contributors to ecosystem service value in the Kuye River Basin. However, water area services have significantly decreased from 1990 to 2022. Under the NDC scenario, land development primarily relies on greensward and farmland, reducing forest and water areas and weakening the ecosystem’s regulatory and supporting functions. In contrast, the EPC scenario enhances ecosystem services by protecting critical ecological regions. Ecological protection measures significantly increase the ecosystem service values of the Kuye River Basin, and well-planned land use can effectively balance economic development with ecological preservation. This study provides scientific evidence to inform policies integrating ecological protection and economic growth, contributing to the sustainable development of the Kuye River Basin.