Left over or opting out? Squeeze, mismatch and surplus in Chinese marriage markets

Marriage is declining in China. Among singles, the probability of marrying in 2019 was half that of marrying in 1999. We estimate a Choo and Siow (2006b) model using census data to quantify the relative roles of changes in population structure and changes in marital surplus, i.e., the value of marriage. We find that the increase in the supply of educated people explains half of the decline, partly due to a mismatch between highly-educated women and less-educated men. The deterioration of female-to-male ratio, known as marriage squeeze, explains an additional 13% for men. The decrease in surplus accounts for the remainder. • We study the main drivers of the decline in marriage in China between 1999 and 2019. • We estimate a Choo and Siow model using census data and compute counterfactuals. • Changes in the supply of educated men and women explains half of the decline. • The deterioration of female-to-male ratio explains an additional 13% for men. • A decrease in marital surplus (the value of marriage) accounts for the remainder.