A risk prediction model for unexplained early neurological deterioration following intravenous thrombolysis

Abstract Background and objectives Early neurological deterioration (END) post-intravenous thrombolysis significantly impacts the long-term prognosis of stroke patients. This study aimed to establish a rapid risk prediction model for unexplained END following intravenous thrombolysis. Methods This prospective study consecutively enrolled patients with acute ischemic stroke treated with recombinant tissue plasminogen activator intravenous thrombolysis at the Department of Neurology, Third People’s Hospital of Hubei Province, and Yangluo Hospital District between June 2019 and December 2022. Unexplained END was defined as an increase of ≥ 4 points in the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score between admission and 24 h. A nomogram was developed and assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The calibration was assessed using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test. Results A total of 211 patients (130 males and 110 patients aged < 65 years) were included, with 66 experiencing unexplained END. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified large arterial disease, transient ischemic attack, high blood glucose, high neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, important perforator disease, and low the Alberta Stroke Program Early CT scores (APSECTS) as independent risk factors for END and established the nomogram used above indicators. The nomogram showed an AUC-ROC of 0.809 (95% CI 0.7429–0.8751), with a specificity of 0.862 and sensitivity of 0.712. The positive predictive value was 0.702, and the negative predictive value was 0.868. The Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test ( χ 2 = 1.069, P = 0.169) indicated acceptable model calibration. Conclusion This study successfully established a risk prediction model for END following intravenous thrombolysis and the model demonstrates good stability and predictive capacity. Further validation through a prospective, multicenter study is necessary.