Does the Inter-Provincial Floating Population Affect Regional Economic Development in China? An Empirical Analysis

In recent decades, significant changes in the urban–rural structure of population mobility have profoundly impacted provincial development, urbanization, and population redistribution in China. Based on China’s fifth, sixth, and seventh national population census datasets, this study explores the effects of the inter-provincial floating population on regional economic development through statistical and empirical analysis, identifying both the scale and structural impacts of the floating population on regional economic development. The results found that while the scale of China’s floating population has been continuously increasing, the spatial distribution pattern remains relatively unchanged, and the pattern is summed up as low in the middle and high on both sides. The floating population exerts both scale and structural effects on the economic development of both inflow and outflow regions, altering regional populations and production efficiency, and thereby influencing regional economic outcomes. Specifically, this study finds that the inflow population has no significant differential impact on high- and low-density regions. In contrast, the outflow population exhibits a significant differential impact, with the negative impact of the outflow population on low-density regions being more substantial than that on high-density regions. Inter-provincial migration supports achieving sustainable development goals (SDG-8 and 11) by shaping regional economic development. To address these dynamics, the high-density regions of China should transform and upgrade the industrial and population structure by promoting the trend of population return to low-density regions. This can be achieved by transferring low-end industries and low-skilled labor, thereby alleviating the pressure of overcrowding. Meanwhile, low-density regions should seize the opportunities for population return and industrial transfer, implement talent introduction, and accurately undertake industrial transfer. This approach can foster the in-depth development of new urbanization and rural revitalization initiatives, promoting balanced regional growth and sustainability.