Are restoration plans missing the target? Land tenure and cyclone risks reshuffles priorities for mangrove restoration

Coastal wetlands, vital for fisheries habitats, have suffered extensive losses. Ecosystem restoration offers opportunities to improve fish catch and restore the valuable services these ecosystems provide. Successful restoration is dependent on choosing a site where restoration is feasible, which encompasses biophysical, social, governance, logistical, and resource factors. However, factors that influence feasibility such as land tenure (governance feasibility) and future climate risks (biophysical feasibility) are often overlooked in quantitative analyses of site selection. We ask how spatial priorities for restoration change when considering how feasibility is affected by land tenure, cyclone risk, and both factors together. Specifically, we analyzed a case‐study of mangrove restoration to improve fish catch in Queensland, where there is interest in restoring coastal habitats to support fish habitats. We found that the rank order of planning units by restoration feasibility was highly influenced by both land tenure and cyclones, with cyclones changing ranks with clustered regions along the coastline and land tenure variably changing ranks throughout. In planning units where fisheries benefit is expected to be high, but cyclone risk substantially reduces restoration feasibility, practitioners could consider strategically planting mangroves near established mangrove forest and selecting resilient species for restoration. Formalizing regulations for incentives to private land holders and amending legislation for easier permitting are additional suggestions for addressing land tenure challenges. Our study emphasizes the importance of systematic approaches to considering feasibility in spatial planning for restoration to minimize the risk of failure.