The Impact of Geopolitical Conflict and Fed Rate Hikes on Asset Pricing

In the current context of weak economic recovery, ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and consecutive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, global financial and commodity markets have experienced intensified turbulence. To investigate the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Federal Reserve interest rate hikes on asset pricing, this study first analyzed the U.S. stock market, bond market, and commodity market based on data from the CEIC database. From the comprehensive stock and year-on-year data after each round of interest rate hikes, it is evident that both the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Federal Reserve interest rate hikes have had a significant negative impact on investors' financial assets. Additionally, due to the continuous interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, funds from the stock market have gradually shifted to the bond market. Furthermore, after analyzing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Federal Reserve interest rate hikes on the U.S. stock market, bond market, and commodity market, the study further explored the influence of these factors on asset pricing using the discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation model. Finally, the study provided an outlook on future market trends.