Assessment of a downscaling using quantiles mapping with MIROC Model in Guadalquivir Basin, Bolivia

In this study historical and combined GS precipitation products were assessed versus climate change scenarios at Guadalquivir basin. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the downscaling procedure using Quantiles Downscaling Mapping (QDM). This scheme is based in statistical analysis where precipitation and temperature are adjusted using observed datasets. Moreover, simulated river discharge was obtained using HYDROBID tool. It was identified underestimation of combined GS precipitation product as well as simulated river discharge. Three climate change scenarios from MIROC CORDEX were used namely: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The precipitation and temperature analyses were performed at daily time step. The results of QDM application showed more efficiency with RCP 8.5 and combined product GS for the 230 subbasins. About hydrological modeling using CORDEX variables, it was observed perturbed climate change using combined product GS with lower values against rain gauges. In this sense, precipitation and discharge were underestimated. Temperature showed the best performance at all cases. Finally, discharge series were integrated into volumes, where a decrease in water availability at the basins was noted as for near and far future. It is recommended to use perturbed scenarios with combined precipitation product since it is the most critical and takes into account the spatial variability with 230 syntactical rain gauges.