In the Shadow of Global Polycrisis: Consensus and Polarization in the 2023 Estonian and Finnish Parliamentary Elections

The beginning of the 2020s has been marked by a near global polycrisis (Lawrence et al., 2024). In addition to the global climate crisis brewing in the background, in 2020, the first global pandemic erupted, which pressured governments to take unprecedented measures and divided societies over social distancing measures and vaccination and disrupted global production and logistics chains and caused turbulence in demand and supply. In 2022, Russia launched full-scale war in Ukraine, which sent millions seeking refuge elsewhere in Europe, prompted unprecedented international economic sanctions on Russia and enhanced the military preparedness in most European Union and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states. This also resulted in the rapid rise of energy prices and the danger of energy deficit, rise of inflation and interest rates. Hence, the general elections in Estonia in March 2023 and Finland in April 2023 took place in a situation of heightened international, economic and societal tensions and the outgoing governments having mainly dealt with crisis governance rather than focusing on fulfilling their electoral promises. In addition, both election campaigns also bore marks of bloc politics, where an otherwise multi-party system becomes aligned in two major camps and the campaign becomes a referendum on the proposed policies of these two camps. Whilst polarization – both affective and political – is very well documented in the United States, it is also making headways into European politics. Political campaign cultures and government–opposition relations are changing even in countries like Finland and Estonia, which have usually been characterized by notably low levels of polarization (Bettarelli et al., 2023; Nord et al., 2024). Previous research has suggested that after a crisis, voters are particularly attracted to the political rhetoric of the (extreme) right. For instance, after a financial crisis, extreme right-wing parties increase their vote share by 30 percent (Funke et al., 2016). Moreover, as Lisinska (2022) has noted, in times of crisis, when taking substantial measures is of particular importance, continued polarization often leads to democracy fatigue. Whilst Estonia and Finland have not faced democracy fatigue, it seems clear that following the turbulent times of the last decade have led both countries to unforeseen levels of polarization and emergence of populist right wing. Especially Finland has a long tradition of multiparty collaboration, having a history of coalitions including from left to right, but the consensus-oriented society has lately reformed towards bloc politics with strong divisions between political camps. This shift towards bloc politics has resulted in more pronounced ideological divides and a rise in populist rhetoric. The political landscape in both Estonia and Finland now reflects a growing fragmentation, where the emergence of right-wing populism signals a significant departure from the historical consensus-driven political culture. Estonia and Finland are two neighbouring countries with traditionally different political standings and history. During the cold war, Estonia remained behind the Iron Curtain, whilst Finland was a neutral country. After Estonia regained its independence in 1991, it launched its (re)integration to the West, becoming a member of the EU in 2004 (which Finland had joined in 1995) and, in the same year, also joined NATO, whilst Finland remained neutral. Socio-economically, Finland is a Nordic welfare state, whereas Estonia has since its independence been a liberal welfare state. Despite their differences, Finland and Estonia share strong cultural roots (both speak a Finno-Ugric language, which differentiates them from both the Scandinavian and the Baltic countries) and have maintained a very amicable relationship. Both countries have a parliamentary political system, where the government is formed based on the results of the parliamentary election (although Finland used a semi-presidential system until the 1990s and, unlike Estonia, still elects its president directly). The Estonian parliament Riigikogu has 101 seats and the Finnish Eduskunta has 200 seats. Both countries use a proportional voting system, where the country is divided into electoral districts (12 districts in Estonia and 13 districts in Finland). In both Estonia and Finland, votes are cast directly for the candidate and indirectly for the party (or electoral list). Whilst Finland also allows electoral alliances to compete in the elections, which are an attractive solution for smaller parties, Estonia allows only parties and single candidates to compete. In Estonia, the electoral threshold is at 5%. In Finland, the mandates are distributed in each electoral district, using the d'Hondt method. In Estonia, the seats are distributed in three rounds: first, personal mandates are distributed to the candidates who pass the quota (all votes divided by number of mandates) in the electoral district. This is also the only chance for single candidates to enter the parliament. In the second round, district mandates are distributed between party lists, using the quota method whilst the party lists are reordered according to the share of votes each candidate earned. In the third round, compensation mandates are distributed, using closed national lists and the modified d'Hondt method. Both election systems slightly advantage the larger parties. In the following, we will give an overview of the electoral event in both countries, including the core campaign topics and the election results and the implications on both the domestic and international and EU level. We show that whilst the global polycrisis raises similar issues in Estonia and Finland, they play out rather differently, even within the common trend of emergent polarization and block politics. In addition, the article also demonstrates how the times of polycrisis entail taking important political decisions in between-elections periods rather than arguing them out during the election campaign. Finland's snap accession to the NATO after decades of the neutrality doctrine is a particular case in point. Both Estonia and Finland entered the electoral contestation under the leadership of a female prime minister. However, this is where the similarities end. In Finland, the coalition of the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Left Alliance was led by Social Democrat Sanna Marin and had been in office since the previous election. Meanwhile, Estonia had witnessed three ideologically incoherent government coalitions in 2019–2023: whilst Kaja Kallas from the Reform Party entered the election as prime minister leading a coalition of right-wing liberal Reform Party, right-wing conservative Fatherland and left-wing liberal Social Democrats, she had also led a coalition government between the Reform Party and the left-wing conservative Centre Party in 2021–2022, which was preceded by a coalition of the Centre Party, Fatherland and populist radical right Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), in office in 2019–2021. This meant that all the parliamentary parties of 2019–2023 had been in government, mostly in electorally inconvenient coalitions and the tensions soared high, especially between the liberal bloc led by the Reform Party and conservative bloc, where EKRE was most vocal. However, despite of higher coalition stability, Finland also entered the election amidst a notably high level of polarization between the parties. Topic-wise, defence and public spending issues were high on the campaign agenda in both countries. In 2022, Finland applied for NATO membership as a reaction to Russia's attack on Ukraine with full parliamentary support. Until February 2022, a clear majority of the Finnish public as well as politicians were opposed to NATO membership. The shift in opinion was sudden and seismic 2024). Finnish politicians were towards a to NATO but a the with a majority of of which party they with membership In to not a single Finnish party opposed NATO membership. NATO membership was to of the to in 2023 elections, but the meant that was not a campaign at the 2023 general election 2024). to the campaign in Finland was this was to a of electoral fatigue, since had elections, and in were elections to a of Despite national a major politicians in Finland's on NATO membership. The by most was in During the election Finland into NATO, which after However, to The by public spending and as the campaign The the government as towards the especially with public spending during the pandemic The was that unlike the Nordic Finland's was to the of the welfare state. Whilst the parties both left and right to the the suggested divided the parties. parties the Party that of the substantial increase in whereas the Party to of and suggested the to more 2024). The economic how to the and the Finland's suggested to increase as well as in spending to the Social and the political left to the economic with and were opposed they the In this the was a of political on a The heightened between the and the marked also an increase of which very strong in the traditionally politics of to the Sanna Marin voters from the and to the and it was as a to the the Party that – is a on which Finland The topics in Estonia was the of the campaign were to defence and economic all parliamentary parties had been in government in the the campaign and of the electoral of all parties. This was most where the Reform Party also the Social and two for a and not whilst the conservative parties, especially to the with government their electoral also and The that all parliamentary parties had in government also a chance to two parties, Estonia 200 and The both liberal right-wing parties, which to a significant on the of the in government and a more and state. However, the of between the Reform Party and which also which have both parties. This was a major since in all the previous elections since the had been between the Reform Party and the Centre The Reform Party used its in international and defence as its campaign campaign was in and they to defence to of The campaign on the of prime minister Kaja Kallas who was taking a in the international as a of Ukraine the of the defence not the Reform Party and this was also as most important by the The only party that to the Reform Party on the was which and to the Estonian as and However, in with parties in Europe, EKRE still out for its of with Russia and its on the 2024). EKRE as national conservative but also all the populist radical right parties et al., in it on a and in on an its 2023 election campaign on a of the Reform Party led government of and energy was to well with as Estonia inflation of over as the government energy prices in the of the in and with the with military which is of the most in Estonia particularly the more conservative also the of politics. Whilst EKRE a and conservative their and not the parties not over these This has been with the of a liberal which had the liberal parties to from on these more cultural in the Estonian 2023 elections EKRE the for them out of of the The Centre coalition when prime minister over the Centre In Finland, the three parties – Social and Party – all than in the In with the of the the of the party government the of the parties at the has This was especially the case in where government coalition were the elections, with the Social Democrats, and Left Alliance government with the the situation the three parties was until the very voting as a of in the of the campaign. For instance, votes especially from of and Left who to the of the government and Sanna the party vote – Marin was only the third prime minister to have to increase the party vote since – but the election was by the two parties, the and The the parliamentary party for only the second in its history. most from both the and the to for NATO membership in The Party over of the national for the first in its history. The parties from Centre to an whilst the its since seats and a of In was even more pronounced at it to its as the leading party 2024). Left Alliance and People's Party both of their but not as as the Centre Party and the In Estonia, the Reform on defence issues them the election with an share of the clear was the also right-wing liberal party Estonia 200 in which on a of long and for Estonia, which entered the parliament for the first with of the Meanwhile, the parties of the conservative coalition of all seats. The left-wing Centre Party as its had been since especially the The a of have formed the core of Centre Party since as is party The of the Centre Party were to them a right-wing but their with the voters had been since when the who had been for relations with as of the Whilst party that EKRE seats until the last of the election its of two seats the of its defence the the party have conservative and the of energy prices their of crisis on the economic Fatherland had been in to the taking a notably more conservative to which resulted in the of the from the who a party The and in the of the but seats. The Social to but this was as a the party had been near the electoral threshold of for most of the between-elections was the of the United Left Party with of the which candidates of a who on a and the United Left has in the elections for decades the electoral threshold in the it under the of national level However, it of the vote in the it not been for a single candidate member of the Centre who on a similar and of the vote in the the United Left candidate have a personal the party have the electoral threshold that the of is the in the Estonian In Finland, remained at the same level as in the previous parliamentary elections in In the 2023 general election in Estonia, of all Whilst election a of electoral to the changing voters more than in in the election. party system is usually characterized as especially in the and European and, for the two by the Reform in countries, the level of political polarization has been higher for in the Nordic countries, and polarization has mainly the with the between the more Centre Party and the parties However, the decade has witnessed of the core from the to the and which the liberal voters with and from with more and This is in the emergence of which entered the parliament in on the and the third in the elections mainly on the of and from cultures to Estonia et al., However, the conservative Centre government coalition the level of polarization to and the more liberal EKRE was a in the it the public by an of which resulted from their public public politicians in countries, which to the ideological In the 2023 the liberal parties had their and to the conservative parties, which has the tensions even The polarization is out in the where of has Whilst of and taking has been an in Estonian parliamentary politics also in the it has not been used on the in the The first major was by the liberal parties, when the Reform Party and Social to the of the referendum proposed by the However, after the 2023 EKRE and the Centre Party on all government which the of the parliament for the the government used the which to to the with the vote of and pass the with and the of the parliament used to the number of and the to pass them in which were in an opinion by the The tensions were also heightened by that the election was from them the system (which has been used since and was used by more than of the voters in the party has been of for is their and more are cast in of the liberal parties. EKRE a the of the for the but this was by the However, the public has the of the electoral system, and the in the parliament in parliament 2024). EKRE has an of snap elections (which have in Estonia and has proposed snap elections on including during parliamentary Whilst the trend towards polarization has been similar in Finland, the Finland has been as a country of politics and since the by which is by European and 2024). a all Finnish parties have been in government in the 30 and at governments have political as the Left Alliance and This with Nordic countries, as they have often been led by are of as issues and the three parties – the Social Democrats, the Centre Party and the Party – have by the of the populist political and societal polarization have et al., 2024). Finland has not traditionally had a bloc party voters have the of the which is after of following the parliamentary election 2024). this was not as was a very of the three parties and the each having a of This meant that a coalition of two of these three parties and two smaller parties was for a majority However, the shift took place in when the Party their from in to in parties having meant that a majority government more a the parties to more of their and to with even parties. The in Finnish politics have traditionally been the the People's Party the of the and the After the EU in the EU independence has been within the the has and during the polarization has place during the the voters into the liberal left and conservative right. However, the emergence of bloc politics to the elections, when government was right-wing and conservative by Finnish and the to the left in the The polycrisis during the governments of and Sanna Marin only these the 2023 elections, the coalition was formed between the the Party, the People's Party and the by Whilst a coalition government by Finnish it faced and to the global to the political that a electoral and to the of including a populist radical right party in the In Finland, as in all Nordic countries, the level of in is very high, which has a also on political The Nordic countries have a strong society based on a of interest and and very low level of Finnish political system is based on a low level of and between the government, parliamentary and take place behind closed Nordic political is often as having an on and from the the coalitions were formed in all Nordic countries between social and parties extreme In Finland, between Finnish and the Finnish government were mostly since a of economic and political as and In the of Finnish and to more This not only the tradition but also a the was to the that the not and In for over of Finnish social has place and been in these the This has been the case especially in the issues to social The of social meant that social agenda for political parties in a like This was the case especially for parties three – Social Party, and Centre Party – in Left Alliance and the Party, as they were now to social political However, unforeseen was that parties and politicians were rather in the of the social system – and social in general et al., The first government after the of the was a but the following the coalition and and Sanna to social with of the social The global the war in Ukraine and the European inflation caused in Finnish as unlike the Nordic Finland's was to the of the welfare state. it was not that the the campaign. government a of to social the right to and to This in has caused a reaction from the and and all of have been the of April the government not to social in the and not show of the only that seems to clear is that the has been after the government had its the government in a crisis by of the the of to and use of in led to a vote of which after the previous for the as a to which to from as a a the of the Party, and on the of the of the as well as social in the In the used and parties the of the to the parliament to a vote of of that the was not to the The third of the crisis took place the of and were to the in Whilst that the used and the of the People's Party and of to in that the only who are the who and the who the The significant global and to the Finnish The president of Finland, the as for the government – to the and that for the Finnish government to a clear on The coalition People's Party this crisis especially as the liberal party has traditionally for and In the People's to the Party minister in the vote caused a level of in the In from party and Whilst similar the Estonian government coalition between the Centre Party, EKRE and Fatherland in the liberal coalition formed in 2023 was by a different of Whilst the three coalition the Reform Party, Estonia 200 and the Social Democrats, aligned in their liberal their remained the Reform Party and Estonia which are both a of seats in the 101 member a majority not have been to and they also the Social The public to topics during the election campaign. all three coalition had on the of the Reform Party and Estonia 200 the of how they will The Reform Party even to the that in the Estonian system, that for and the Social that they to a defence for all and by a also for the high when the coalition that they had to both and and a as the to for the deficit, they faced public In addition to parliamentary a campaign was launched Kaja using a of in where she However, this from a parliamentary where she was the of the previous government formed in 2022, it had been out of to the coalition in Estonia of its first the coalition which entered into on This as a the referendum which not take place in and also as a from when government coalition led by the Reform Party had the the election and a for the government also to with Estonia still has a system from the in both Estonian and The has a for the where on the of is behind the of the Estonian by The coalition to more into the and in Estonian using in all and from Whilst the elections in Estonia and in Finland took place at an turbulent they not play a significant but rather the In the coalition both governments to including EU and NATO membership to government the EU is Finland's most important political and economic and the EU which between the of the coalition the Party a the government that the EU into a and more is in Finland's However, the coalition not on how the EU The for Finland's and were to Finland's independence and its in military and the and of its The European Union and NATO the core of Finland's Whilst in the government, the Party has its towards the European Union has The Party Finland's from the European Union in its European election whilst still in its European election the party that its was an EU as of a coalition of This is in with their to to the in the European in 2023 after to the in During the Finland has a in Finland as a neutral country between the and the the and Russia Finland continued the traditionally relations with at the same as a European country. the political leadership the for the NATO whilst the majority of the Finnish was not to After February and the towards Ukraine, the public opinion in Finland and with Finland a towards NATO membership. Finland applied to NATO on 2022, that to the and a member on April after the with both the outgoing and the government the membership. Whilst Finland's with NATO and the United was and the to a NATO member was not a the rapid in the was a full member of the EU and NATO since Estonia continued on its which remained even during the Centre However, the election as a referendum on the of to Ukraine, as Estonia had over of in military to Ukraine and to increase the after the election also as a referendum on the public of Kaja who had been taking a notably in Kallas had been for the of Russia's in the EU member in to which was in as a both on the national as well as the EU level. the Reform Party NATO to increase their defence spending and of their to Ukraine in to the war Russia 2024). The government coalition formed in 2023 defence and policies as its to increase defence spending to of as to military and also for the level of defence spending from to of The Estonian government coalition also to the policies of the EU and NATO towards countries and the with the United and with Nordic and Baltic countries The 2023 elections in Estonia and Finland in the of a which heightened societal tensions and outgoing governments to take important political decisions having for a the 2023 election took bloc politics and polarization the to a level and were for decisions This bloc politics and of in both countries, despite in the political cultures and ideological in Estonia and Whilst the electoral – in Finland, a right-wing conservative coalition was whilst in Estonia, a liberal coalition to – both election campaigns were marked by the populist radical right becoming a that voters vote In both countries, the voters are still to the of bloc and voting and in the coalition which on the a to the political polarization but also to the as the Whilst the elections took place also at an turbulent these not to the and defence Both countries are on the NATO and the EU as the core economic and political In Estonia, the election as a referendum on the Reform and the election in Finland for the to NATO the election when the public opinion which from NATO membership to the defence This marked the of decades long neutrality for Finland, in defence where Finland was with