Trade-Off and Coordination between Development and Ecological Protection of Urban Agglomerations along Rivers: A Case Study of Urban Agglomerations in the Shandong Section of the Lower Yellow River

Urban development of clusters situated along rivers significantly affects the health of the river ecosystems, the quality of urban environments, and the overall well-being of local communities. Ecosystem service supply value (ESSV) measures the delivery of ecosystem goods and services within a specific timeframe in a particular area. Using the lower Yellow River urban agglomeration (Shandong section) as a case, we comprehensively applied land use structure and intensity change analysis, quantitative calculation of ESS, and geographical probe methods to unveil ESS and its mechanism of response to the spatio-temporal evolution of the intensity of land use in urban agglomeration along the river. The key results were as follows: (1) Over the past two decades, farmland and construction land areas have continued to decrease and increase, respectively, with the intensity of land use change being highest from 2005 to 2010. (2) ESS has continued to rise over the past 20 years, with the income in 2020 being 11.142 billion yuan, an increase of 31.13%. The “low-value areas” are mainly concentrated in Liaocheng City, Dezhou City, and Tai’an City, which are characterized by predominantly flat terrains where farmland constitutes the principal land use type. Conversely, “high-value areas” are largely in the counties bordering the Yellow River, including the upper estuary in the north and the rugged, southeastern terrains. (3) Areas with concentrated ESSV were primarily localized in the northern estuary area and along the Yellow River in a scattered point-like pattern. The spatial distribution of hotspots has become increasingly concentrated, transitioning from points to planes. Conversely, cold spots initially increased in number before subsequently decreasing. Waterbody was the most sensitive ESSV-determining factor. (4) The spatial heterogeneity of ESSV emerges as a consequence of the interaction of multiple factors, and among these interactions, those involving NDVI and POP contain the greatest explanatory power. Our findings are expected to offer a scientific foundation for optimizing land spatial patterns and enhancing ecological management in the lower Yellow River region.