Spatial and Temporal Dynamics in Vegetation Greenness and Its Response to Climate Change in the Tarim River Basin, China

Vegetation in ecologically sensitive regions has experienced significant alterations due to global climate change. The underlying mechanisms remain somewhat obscure owing to the spatial heterogeneity of influencing factors, particularly in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) in China. Therefore, this study targets the TRB, analyzing the spatial and temporal dynamics of vegetation greenness and its climatic determinants across multiple spatial scales. Utilizing Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, vegetation greenness trends over the past 23 years were assessed, with future projections based on the Hurst exponent. Partial correlation and multiple linear regression analyses were employed to correlate NDVI with temperature (TMP), precipitation (PRE), and potential evapotranspiration (PET), elucidating NDVI’s response to climatic variations. Results revealed that from 2000 to 2022, 90.1% of the TRB exhibited an increase in NDVI, with a significant overall trend of 0.032/decade (p < 0.01). The difference in NDVI change across sub-basins and vegetation types highlighted the spatial disparity in greening. Notable greening predominantly occurred near rivers at lower elevations and in extensive cropland areas, with projections indicating continued greening in some regions. Conversely, future trends mainly suggested a shift towards browning, particularly in higher-elevation areas with minimal human influence. From 2000 to 2022, the TRB experienced a gradual increase in TMP, PRE, and PET. The latter two factors were significantly correlated with NDVI, indicating their substantial role in greening. However, vegetation sensitivity to climate change varied across sub-basins, vegetation types, and elevations, likely due to differences in plant characteristics, hydrothermal conditions, and human disturbances. Despite climate change influencing vegetation dynamics in 51.5% of the TRB, its impact accounted for only 25% of the total NDVI trend. These findings enhance the understanding of vegetation ecosystems in arid regions and provide a scientific basis for developing ecological protection strategies in the TRB.