The Effect of Multilateral Economic Cooperation on Sustainable Natural Resource Development

The relationship between natural resource development and sustainable development has long been a focus in academia. In the context of a new global economic cooperation system, many scholars argue that such cooperation can lead to a “resource curse” effect in partner countries, hindering their sustainable development. This study analyzed panel data from 64 countries from 2008 to 2020, using the Belt and Road Initiative as a representative of multilateral economic cooperation (MEC) policies. The aim was to examine the actual impact of multilateral economic cooperation on the sustainable development levels of partner countries and to explore the underlying mechanisms influencing these outcomes. First, we measured and identified the sustainable development index (SDI) under natural resource development schemes and the “resource curse” effect in these countries. Then, we employed a double machine learning approach to evaluate the policy effects of MEC on sustainable resource development. We constructed an interactive double machine learning model to examine and validate the specific mechanisms of resource development effects. The results indicate that the level of sustainable resource development in MEC countries is relatively low, and a “resource curse” effect already exists. However, participating in MEC suppresses this “curse” effect. By promoting innovation cooperation, institutional improvement, structural optimization, trade openness, and pollution reduction, MEC effectively enhances the sustainable development levels of partner countries.