Multi-Dimensional Landscape Connectivity Index for Prioritizing Forest Cover Change Scenarios: A Case Study of Southeast China

Predicting forest cover change (FCC) and screening development scenarios are crucial for ecological resilience. However, quantitative evaluations of prioritizing forest change scenarios are limited. Here, we took five shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) representing potential global changes, namely SSP1: sustainability, SSP2: middle of the road, SSP3: regional rivalry, SSP4: inequality, and SSP5: fossil-fueled development, which were constructed by integrated assessment and climate models. We modeled them with the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) and constructed a multi-dimensional landscape connectivity index (MLCI) employing forest landscape connectivity (FLC) indices to assess forest development in Fujian Province, Southeast China. The MLCI visualized by radar charts was based on five metrics, including forest patch size (class area (CA), number (patch density (PD), isolation (landscape division index (DIVISION), aggregation (mean nearest-neighbor index (ENN_MN), and connectance index, (CONNECT). The results indicate that FC will remain above 61.4% until 2030, with growth observed in SSP1 and SSP4. Particularly, FC in SSP4 substantially increased, converted from cropland (1140.809 km2) and grassland (645.741 km2). SSP4 has the largest MLCI values and demonstrates significant enhancements in forest landscape integrity, with CA, ENN_MN and CONNECT increasing greatly. Our study offers valuable approaches to and insights into forest protection and restoration.