Impacts of River Network Connectivity on Flood Signatures and Severity Regulated by Flood Control Projects

The operation of hydraulic projects within plain river networks to mitigate floods can alter river network connectivity patterns, subsequently affecting flood processes. This study employed the MIKE 11 model to simulate flood processes under three different river network connectivity scenarios. Based on the simulations, we propose a method to evaluate flood intensity severity by integrating three flood characteristic indices: Slope of the Flow Duration Curve (SFDC), Rising Climb Index (RCI), and Flashiness Index (FI). These indices assess the overall magnitude of change, the rate of rise, and process fluctuations, respectively. Results indicate that changes in river network connectivity significantly impact RCI and SFDC, more than FI. Compared to the natural river network connectivity mode, changes in urban or watershed river network connectivity resulted in a significant decrease in RCI values by 3–37% or 18–38% across various return periods, with the rate of change in RCI values increasing as the return period lengthened. The impact of urban river network connectivity changes on SFDC within the Changzhou urban area was more pronounced under high-magnitude storm conditions, causing a 61% reduction. Furthermore, changes in watershed river network connectivity had a larger effect on SFDC under low-magnitude storm conditions than under high-intensity storms. Over 80% of the rivers under natural connectivity conditions exhibited flood intensity severity of Level III or higher, particularly in the Chenshu–Qingyang area. The alterations in connectivity significantly decreased flood intensity severity, with 85% to 91% of rivers showing the lowest flood intensity severity of Level I. Under a 100-year rainstorm scenario, flood risk shifted from within the flood protection envelope to outside it in the Changzhou urban area. The results will provide an important scientific basis for regional flood management in plains with dense rivers.