Extent, impacts and drivers of oystershell scale invasions in aspen ecosystems

Invasive herbivores that kill foundation tree species pose a major threat to forest ecosystem sustainability. One important foundation tree species in the interior western United States is quaking aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx.), which is threatened by recent outbreaks of an invasive insect, oystershell scale ( Lepidosaphes ulmi Linn.; OSS). OSS outbreaks were first reported in 2016, when OSS began causing dieback and mortality of aspen in wildland forest settings in northern Arizona. Since then, OSS has been observed in other locations across Arizona and in other western states, and recent studies in Arizona have highlighted the threat that OSS poses to aspen sustainability, warranting a comprehensive survey of OSS invasions and their impacts on aspen ecosystems. We sampled aspen populations across Arizona and addressed three questions: (1) What is the geographic extent of OSS in Arizona? (2) What impacts does OSS have on aspen? (3) Which biotic and abiotic factors influence the proportion of aspen stems infested by OSS? OSS was present in 29% of our 220 study plots and had a negative impact on aspen forest health. OSS was associated with crown damage and tree mortality, especially of intermediate-sized, recruiting stems. Climate was the most important driver of OSS infestation, with warmer, drier conditions resulting in significantly more OSS. OSS was also associated with less recent fire, presence of ungulate management strategies (e.g. fenced exclosures) and stands with a greater density of aspen saplings. We conclude by providing OSS monitoring and management recommendations, based on our findings, and emphasise that active management – such as prescribed fire, reduced reliance on ungulate exclosures or thinning – is required to suppress OSS populations and mitigate damage to aspen ecosystems.