Machine Learning and Wearable Technology: Monitoring Changes in Biomedical Signal Patterns during Pre-Migraine Nights

Migraine is one of the most common neurological disorders, characterized by moderate-to-severe headache episodes. Autonomic nervous system (ANS) alterations can occur at phases of migraine attack. This study investigates patterns of ANS changes during the pre-ictal night of migraine, utilizing wearable biosensor technology in ten individuals. Various physiological, activity-based, and signal processing metrics were examined to train predictive models and understand the relationship between specific features and migraine occurrences. Data were filtered based on specified criteria for nocturnal sleep, and analysis frames ranging from 5 to 120 min were used to improve the diversity of the training sample and investigate the impact of analysis frame duration on feature significance and migraine prediction. Several models, including XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boosting), HistGradientBoosting (Histogram-Based Gradient Boosting), Random Forest, SVM, and KNN, were trained on unbalanced data and using cost-sensitive learning with a 5:1 ratio. To evaluate the changes in features during pre-migraine nights and nights before migraine-free days, an analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed. The results showed that the features of electrodermal activity, skin temperature, and accelerometer exhibited the highest F-statistic values and the most significant <i>p</i>-values in the 5 and 10 min frames, which makes them particularly useful for the early detection of migraines. The generalized prediction model using XGBoost and a 5 min analysis frame achieved 0.806 for accuracy, 0.638 for precision, 0.595 for recall, and 0.607 for F1-score. Despite identifying distinguishing features between pre-migraine and migraine-free nights, the performance of the current model suggests the need for further improvements for clinical application.