Resistance Model Uncertainty in Non-Linear Numerical Analyses of Ultra-High-Performance Reinforced Concrete Beams in Flexure

This study presents the bending resistance model uncertainty and corresponding partial factors when performing a design or an assessment of ultra-high-performance reinforced concrete (UHPC) beams via non-linear finite element analyses (NLFEA).UHPC beams that have been both experimentally tested and simulated via NLFEA are considered, as documented in the literature, treating each source as presenting a unique modelling hypothesis of the beams' bending behaviour.A probabilistic analysis through Bayesian updating processes these uncertainties, updating prior distributions of resistance model uncertainty with data from various modelling hypothesis to estimate posterior distributions and the final average posterior distribution.The coefficient of variation and mean value of the average posterior distribution is used to calibrate corresponding partial factors in accordance with the the global safety format for NLFEAs proposed by codes and literature.