Predicting airport noise impact to 2040: Traffic growth and technology uptake

While the volume of air traffic continues to rise, there are concurrent shifts in aircraft fleets and advancements in technology aimed at enhancing aircraft efficiency, sustainability, and minimizing noise footprints. These simultaneous developments contribute to the complexity of forecasting airport noise associated with future air traffic. This study presents various scenarios of technology adoption for the years 2030 and 2040 at a European airport, namely Dublin Airport, encompassing changes in fleet distribution. Aircraft are classified into different generations to reflect their technological advancements. Projections indicate an anticipated growth in the wide body fleet at Dublin Airport from 2023 to 2040, while the shares of narrow body, regional jet, and turboprop fleets are expected to decline. Each forecast year showcases three distinct technology uptake scenarios, with noise contour lines at L d e n = (A) and L n i g h t = (A) being compared. To assess the impact of these changes on airport noise, the study evaluates alterations in area and population exposure. In general, the findings suggest a trend of increasing population exposure coinciding with the rise in air traffic. Nevertheless, the increase of wide body aircraft at Dublin Airport further increases the noise impact in 2030. Anticipated growth sees new generation 2 aircraft reaching up to by 2040, leading to a reduction in 2040 noise contour lines compared to 2030—though not returning to the levels observed in 2023. • Transition to quieter Gen 2 aircraft by 2040 can reduce noise, even with increased air traffic. • It is unlikely that noise levels will return to today's levels by 2040. • Technological advancements affect noise mitigation strategies, with different scenarios showing varying levels of population and area exposure. • Fleet composition affects airport noise: wide-body fleet expands while narrow-body decreases in the future. • Noise Impact Measurement: Study quantifies noise impact on area and population with L d e n = 55 dB ( A ) and L night = 50 dB ( A ) contours.