From planetary scenarios to planetary sensing: Models, observations, and political legibility

This paper explores the political uses of images generated by Earth System science. It argues that images of possible climate futures, maps of potential worlds of heatwaves and wildfires, are made legible to policymakers by an alliance with a class of climate-economy models that associate scientific estimates of climate impacts with a prescribed international policy and technology mix. While environmental models have successfully mobilized policymakers in the past by providing images of “planetary scenarios” accompanying different emissions pathways, with climate change a political actor outside the administrative state is required to overcome the entrenchment of fossil capital. The paper suggests such actors are empowered not by the rhetoric of scenario modeling but by the emerging practice of “planetary sensing,” where activists and stakeholders directly mobilize the planetary images generated by Earth System science as they work to evacuate prisons, track pollutants, and repair pipelines.