Indicator-based assessment of potential supply risks for pharmaceutical excipients: Method and application

This work presents an indicator-based assessment of potential supply risks for pharmaceutical excipients. The assessment was conducted systematically through the steps of survey, data collection, and indicator value calculation. Japan was specified as the target, and all marketed products were analyzed. As the basis of the indicator, the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI), a well-established method for measuring market concentration in economics, was adopted. Modifications were made to enable comparison of the risk levels of compounds, dosage forms, and diseases. Case studies were performed on each of these levels, and recommendations were obtained for risk mitigation. On the compound level, magnesium stearate, a commonly used lubricant, showed the highest risk, and a switch to alternative compounds was recommended. The dosage-form level evaluation showed that tablets and capsules could have higher risk levels than granules, indicating the importance of diversification. Finally, the disease-level evaluation showed that the supply of adult disease drugs might be risky because of the frequent use of tablets; less reliance on tablet forms was advised for adult diseases.