How Much Progress Have We Made towards Decarbonization? Policy Implications Based on the Demand for Electric Cars in Poland

The growing demand for personal mobility is leading to an increase in vehicle use, which is in turn contributing to higher carbon emissions. It is widely acknowledged that emission-free electric vehicles (EVs) will play a pivotal role in the decarbonization process, particularly in the decarbonization of transport systems. The objective of this paper was to present the trends in demand for electric vehicles (EVs) in Poland, together with the identification of market shocks and an assessment of the programs supporting electromobility. The number of imported and domestically purchased new and used electric vehicle (BEV) registrations was analyzed using the TRAMO-SEATS and ARIMA-X-12 seasonal adjustment methods. The rise in sales of electric vehicles in Poland was driven by the government’s electromobility support programs and alterations to tax legislation, with no discernible seasonal impact. The number of registrations in Poland increased significantly, exhibiting an upward trajectory. However, this growth is constrained by the inadequate number of charging stations, which are primarily powered by electricity derived from coal. Consequently, while the development of electromobility in Poland is evident, the decarbonization process remains a challenge.