It is good to be average: Ecological correlates of breeding phenology in an Arctic seabird, <i>Alle alle</i> (Dovekie)

Abstract Recognizing the deviation in an animal’s behavior from a population mean is not only necessary to understand the evolution and stability of the whole system but also to predict the future of a population in a changing environment. Arctic seabirds are expected to exhibit high synchronization in timing of breeding at the population level, due to highly seasonal and harsh environmental conditions. Nevertheless, even in such a highly synchronized system, there are always some earlier and later breeders, and the drivers of inter-pair variation remain largely unknown. Using an 8-year dataset on Alle alle (Dovekie), a small Arctic seabird, we examined potential drivers of breeding phenology. We found that A. alle pairs were quite repeatable in their phenology, and preserved their phenological status, with their chicks hatching consistently before, during, or after the population median date for hatching, despite that the calendar position of the median shifted between years. This would suggest that timing of breeding is associated with some pair characteristics, either via properties of the nest and/or some partner’s traits. However, breeding phenology of the pair was not dependent on nest location, pair bond duration or morphological similarity of the partners. Importantly, timing of breeding was negatively associated with chick growth rate, indicating fitness consequences of phenology. A simulation in our study further suggests that the chance of fledgling survival in the context of predation may be the highest for the chicks that hatched during the peak of the hatching period. While our results suggest that the timing of the breeding is important for the reproductive outcome, further research is required to determine the drivers of the consistent breeding phenology within A. alle pairs.