Economic conditions in early life and the risk of adult mortality

Empirical evidence from European countries has shown that economic conditions in early life are associated with mortality risk. This study aims to assess the effects of economic conditions in early life, as well as their interaction with parental education, on the risk of adult mortality in the U.S. To capture exogenous variation of economic conditions early in life, we use the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) cyclical deviation during a respondent’s birth year. Using the linked U.S. General Social Survey and National Death Index data (1979–2008), we employed parametric frailty survival models to examine the effects of economic conditions in early life on all-cause and cause-specific mortality. We found that exposure to recession in the first year of life was associated with increased all-cause mortality only among women (hazard ratio = 1.54, 95% CI 1.03–2.31). This adverse effect was also found in women’s mortality from cancers (hazard ratio = 2.24, 95% CI 1.18–4.28). We also found a significant interaction between economic conditions in infancy and paternal education on women’s mortality risk—higher paternal education was protective against mortality under good economic conditions in infancy; however, higher paternal education was associated with greater mortality risk under poor economic conditions in infancy. We discuss how aspiration theory may explain these results. Our study concludes that worse macroeconomic conditions early in life heighten the risk of mortality among women, and paternal education moderates this relationship.