Spatial spillover effects of ecosystem service values in northeast China tiger and leopard national park based on spatial Durbin model

National parks are public green spaces planned and managed by the state, with the primary purpose of protecting natural ecosystems and cultural heritage. Evaluating the Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) of national parks and clarifying their ecological benefits can provide important scientific basis for the ecological protection and restoration of national parks. Therefore, taking the Northeast China Tiger and Leopard National Park (NCTLNP) as the study area, this research constructs an ESV assessment model based on Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC), using vegetation net primary productivity（NPP）as a biomass correction factor to modify the Equivalent Factor Approach (EFA). It aims to explore the spatial–temporal pattern changes of the ESV in the NCTLNP from 2000 to 2022. Additionally, the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model is utilized to simulate the future LUCC pattern and ESV evolution trend under ecological protection. Finally, the spatial Durbin model (SDM)is employed, combining socio-economic and environmental factors such as population, GDP, and PM10 and so on, to reveal the driving mechanism of spatial spillover effects of ESV in the NCTLNP. The results indicate that:①The accuracy of the FLUS model is 93.12% with a Kappa coefficient of 0.87. The main LUCC of the NCTLNP is forest. Before 2020, the ecological land had a shrinking trend, while impervious is in a significant increasing trend. After 2020, there is an opposite trend.The most significant changes in LUCC were found in Wangqing County and Hunchun City. ②The ESV of the NCTLNP shows a fluctuating and increasing trend from 2000 to 2022. It increased from 69.315 billion yuan to 69.809 billion yuan. The main service function of the ecosystem in the study area is the regulatory services, which provide 58.03% of the ESV to the NCTLNP. The Hunchun City and Wangqing County have the fastest increasing rate. ③The ESV of the NCTLNP had a significant negative spillover effect, with spatial spillover coefficients of −0.135 and −0.236, respectively, which led to a siphoning phenomenon in the NCTLNP. Overall, by assessing the ESV of the NCTLNP and revealing the spatial spillover effects in the study area, it can provide a vital scientific foundation for the conservation and management of the national park, which will help to fulfill the sustainable development of the ecosystem and the conservation of biodiversity.