Is open access disrupting the journal business? A perspective from comparing full adopters, partial adopters, and non-adopters

Two decades after the inception of open access publishing (OA), its impact has remained a focal point in academic discourse. This study adopted a disruptive innovation framework to examine OA's influence on the traditional subscription market. It assesses the market power of gold journals (OA full adopters) in comparison with hybrid journals and closed-access journals (partial adopters and non-adopters). Additionally, it contrasts the market power between hybrid journals (partial adopters) and closed-access journals (non-adopters). Using the Lerner index to measure market power through price elasticity of demand, this study employs difference tests and multiple regressions. These findings indicate that OA full adopters disrupt the market power of non-adopting incumbents. However, by integrating the OA option into their business models, partial adopters can effectively mitigate this disruption and expand their influence from the traditional subscription market to the emerging OA paradigm. • The first study to test disruptive innovation in open access academic publishing. • The first to use the Lerner Index to estimate market power and price elasticity for academic journals. • The first to empirically compare market power and price elasticity among gold, hybrid, and closed-access journals. • A unique dataset detailing prices and transaction volumes for both the open access and subscription markets. • The study confirms that open access disrupts the traditional subscription market successfully.