Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany

Abstract. The devastating floods that swept through the Ahr valley in July 2021 left indelible marks on the region's landscape and communities. Beyond the visible damage, experience from other events suggests an increase in mental health issues among those affected. However, there is a lack of data and understanding regarding the impact of flooding on mental health in Germany. Therefore, this study aims to determine how much the flooding in 2021 affected the population's mental wellbeing. For this purpose, a household-level survey (n=516) was conducted in the district of Ahrweiler, Rhineland-Palatinate – Germany's most-affected region – 1 year after the flood event, specifically in June and July 2022. The survey employed a short epidemiological screening scale to assess the prevalence of individuals showing indications of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Using binary logistic regression analyses, we identify risk and protective factors that may have played a role in the development of PTSD to find intervention points for supporting those affected. Our findings indicate significant mental health issues 1 year after the flood event, with 28.2 % of respondents showing indications of PTSD. Furthermore, this study has uncovered essential risk factors for developing indications of PTSD after flooding: female gender, being seriously injured or becoming sick during the event, and feeling left alone to cope with flood impacts. The study emphasizes that severe flooding, such as the 2021 flood, results in new health-related needs that demand attention. As a result, care methods should be adapted to tackle the prevalence and risk factors connected with PTSD in the affected population, e.g., by providing targeted aftercare for individuals who were injured or became sick during the flood event.