Assessing the suitability of the SLEUTH cellular automata model for capturing heterogeneous urban growth in developing cities: A case study in Northern Nigeria

<h2>Abstract</h2> Cellular automata (CA) models like SLEUTH (an acronym for slope, land use, excluded area, urban extent, transport-network and hill shade) have predominantly been developed and applied in developed countries. Modeling can serve as a tool to guide policy measures in facing urbanization challenges. However, developing cities have peculiar differences (heterogeneity, poor planning, and low infrastructure) thus the existing modeling approaches may not be able to apprehend heterogeneous urban growth. This research will use selected cities with similar spatial extents as controls but disparate urban extents, and growth indices to analyze the performance of SLEUTH simulations. Presumably, a comparison of the model simulations of the cities would display some significant differences, due to these variations and the scale of observation that has to be used for the model simulations. The results for the successfully calibrated cities (Kano/Funtua couple: 0.48/0.02. Katsina/Kaduna: 0.48/0.83 respectively) showed that in each city couple, the more expansive city with the most compact urban settlement pattern had a higher prediction accuracy, also predicted images of the cities showed underestimation of the urban areas over the years with the exception of Katsina city. The study further showed the model's effectiveness in modeling cities in developing countries, such as Nigeria. It is recommended that the type of urban growth experienced by cities be taken into consideration when implementing SLEUTH. Limitations of the study are centered on the inherent limitations of the model, the possibility of the occurrence of errors in data preparation, the scale and urban settlement type, which play an important role in the success of the calibration. Future research could be focused on adding other relevant inputs to the model and creating a metric that ascertains the best satellite image resolutions for a particular study area's growth coefficient values.