Long-run economic growth despite population decline

When economic growth is driven by the discovery of new ideas and physical labor is the input in ideas production, population decline inevitably leads to the stagnation of living standards. Here, I reconsider the problem of declining population when ideas are produced by an educated workforce and show that steady positive growth of ideas and income is a plausible outcome. The reason is that the accumulation of human capital offsets the negative effects of population growth. In a general equilibrium model with diminishing returns to education, I show that households generate the constant education effort needed to sustain high economic growth.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Published
2024-08-23
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104943
Citations
10
Primary Topic
Economic Growth and Productivity
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
10.16
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article

Long-run economic growth despite population decline

Holger Strulik
10 citations
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Economic Growth and Productivity
10.16
article

Long-run economic growth despite population decline

Holger Strulik
article en
10 citations

Abstract

When economic growth is driven by the discovery of new ideas and physical labor is the input in ideas production, population decline inevitably leads to the stagnation of living standards. Here, I reconsider the problem of declining population when ideas are produced by an educated workforce and show that steady positive growth of ideas and income is a plausible outcome. The reason is that the accumulation of human capital offsets the negative effects of population growth. In a general equilibrium model with diminishing returns to education, I show that households generate the constant education effort needed to sustain high economic growth.

Journal of Economic Dynamics and ControlVol. 168
University of Göttingen (DE)
Decent work and economic growth
Openalex Percentile: Top 2%
Economic Growth and Productivity
10.16
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