Study of drought periods in the Tokaj-Hegyalja wine region

Abstract This study aims to predict drought periods affecting the Tokaj-Hegyalja wine region and the application of this in crop protection. The Tokaj-Hegyalja wine region is the only closed wine region in Hungary with a specific mesoclimate and a corresponding wine grape variety composition, in which climate change strongly threatens cultivation. The probability that a randomly selected day in the vegetation period will fall into a drought period in the future was estimated using the daily precipitation amount and daily maximum temperature data from the Hungarian Meteorological Service for the period 2002–2020. The Markov model, a relatively new mathematical method for the statistical investigation of weather phenomena, was used for this. Markov chains can, therefore, be a valuable tool for organizing integrated pest management. This can be used to plan irrigation, control fungal pathogens infecting the vines, and plan the success of a given vintage.