Forecasting soccer matches with betting odds: A tale of two markets

We compare the properties of betting market odds set in two distinct markets for a large sample of European soccer matches. We confirm inefficiencies in the traditional market for bets on a home win, an away win, or a draw, as found in previous studies such as Angelini and De Angelis (2019). In particular, there is a strong pattern of favourite–longshot bias. Conversely, we document how a betting market that has emerged in recent years, the Asian handicap market, can generate efficient forecasts for the same set of matches using a new methodology for mapping its odds into probabilities.