Comment on “Prediction of the SYM‐H Index Using a Bayesian Deep Learning Method With Uncertainty Quantification” by Abduallah et al. (2024)

Abstract Abduallah et al. (2024b, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023sw003824 ) proposed a novel approach using a deep neural network model, which includes a graph neural network and a bidirectional LSTM layer, named SYMHnet, to forecast the SYM‐H index one and 2 hr in advance. Additionally, the network also provides an uncertainty quantification of the predictions. While the approach is innovative, there are some areas where the model's design and implementation may not align with best practices in uncertainty quantification and predictive modeling. We focus on discrepancies in the input and output of the model, which can limit the applicability in real‐world forecasting scenarios. This comment aims to clarify these issues, offering detailed insights into how such discrepancies could compromise the model's interpretability and reliability, thereby contributing to the advancement of predictive modeling in space weather research.

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Publication Details

Journal
Space Weather
Published
2024-08-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2024sw003909
Primary Topic
Air Quality Monitoring and Forecasting
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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Comment on “Prediction of the SYM‐H Index Using a Bayesian Deep Learning Method With Uncertainty Quantification” by Abduallah et al. (2024)

Pablo Muñoz, C. Cid, Armando Collado‐Villaverde
Space Weather
Air Quality Monitoring and Forecasting
article

Comment on “Prediction of the SYM‐H Index Using a Bayesian Deep Learning Method With Uncertainty Quantification” by Abduallah et al. (2024)

Pablo Muñoz, C. Cid, Armando Collado‐Villaverde
article en

Abstract

Abstract Abduallah et al. (2024b, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023sw003824 ) proposed a novel approach using a deep neural network model, which includes a graph neural network and a bidirectional LSTM layer, named SYMHnet, to forecast the SYM‐H index one and 2 hr in advance. Additionally, the network also provides an uncertainty quantification of the predictions. While the approach is innovative, there are some areas where the model's design and implementation may not align with best practices in uncertainty quantification and predictive modeling. We focus on discrepancies in the input and output of the model, which can limit the applicability in real‐world forecasting scenarios. This comment aims to clarify these issues, offering detailed insights into how such discrepancies could compromise the model's interpretability and reliability, thereby contributing to the advancement of predictive modeling in space weather research.

Space WeatherVol. 22(8)
Universidad de Alcalá (ES)
European Space Agency, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 88%
Air Quality Monitoring and Forecasting
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