Ecosystem Service and Biodiversity Patterns Observed across Co-Developed Land Use Scenarios in the Piedmont: Lessons Learned for Scale and Framing

Biodiversity and ecosystem service models are frequently used to consider current conditions or recent changes in the availability of a service. The application of scenarios for biodiversity and ecosystem service assessment remains underdeveloped, particularly co-designed and fine-granular scenarios across different decision-making boundaries. Consequently, the data created by these modeling efforts may not be as valuable to conservation partners and policy makers. In this project, we used land use and land cover change scenarios co-developed with local and regional decision-makers in northwestern Virginia USA as key inputs for 18 different biodiversity and ecosystem service models. Specifically, we used the InVEST suite of models to predict the change in biodiversity and ecosystem indicators and evaluated differences in that change between scenarios and decision-making boundaries. We found that the scenarios produced distinct results for the majority of biodiversity and ecosystem services, especially as a function of population growth. However, we also found that some services varied more as a function of subregions reflecting the existing diversity of ecosystems and governance structures in the area. The co-designed scenarios and summary of the data across units resulted in the production of varied results that can be used to support land use planning by implementing partners.