Regional differences, dynamic evolution and trend prediction of green manufacturing development levels in China

Green manufacturing has become a necessary way to promote new industrialization and realize the high-quality development of China's manufacturing industry. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2022, this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for the green manufacturing development level and introduces the TOPSIS- Gray correlation method to comprehensively measure the green manufacturing development level of China as a whole and the four major regions in the eastern, central, western, and northeastern parts of the country. The regional differences, distribution dynamics and evolutionary trends of China's green manufacturing development level are also explored with the help of the Gini coefficient, kernel density estimation and Markov chain methods. Research Findings: (1) The green manufacturing development level in China is on an upward trend, with an overall spatial distribution pattern of "East is superior and West is inferior". (2) There are regional differences in the green manufacturing development level in China, and the differences are widening, with interregional differences being the main reason for this overall difference. (3) The country as a whole, the central region and the western region are polarized to varying degrees, with the rest of the country showing an improvement in polarization. (4) Without considering spatial factors, the development of green manufacturing in each province experiences "club convergence" in the short term, and it is difficult to realize rapid development. Considering spatial factors, China's green manufacturing development level is generally characterized by "elevated in proximity to high levels and suppressed in proximity to low levels", and in the long run, it shows a distribution trend toward the concentration of high values. The findings of this study can provide new ideas for promoting synergistic efficient development of green manufacturing in China.