Changes in hourly electricity consumption profiles and price elasticities in Denmark 2019–2022

Changes in consumption profiles affect the need for investments in production and grid capacities. Extending a model with categorical variables for hours of the day, months and types of days to include short-term electricity prices, and applying Danish data for the hourly electricity consumption by aggregated categories of customers, consumption profiles for each of the years from 2019 to 2022 are estimated and it is tested if the profiles change significantly. Further, the short-term price elasticity of hourly electricity demand is estimated. During the first COVID-19 lockdown, residential electricity consumption increased and non-residential consumption decreased and the residential consumption profile on weekdays resembles the weekend profile. However, long-term effects are quite limited. For 2022, the residential consumption profile is significantly different from the profile in 2019. The profile has become flatter, increasing consumption during the night and reducing consumption during the daytime. An increasing number of electric vehicles and individual heat pumps contribute to this change. The short-term price elasticity for total electricity consumption increased in 2022. Especially, the price elasticity for residential customers increased and became significant in the second half of 2022 where electricity prices were high and volatile and customers were aware of prices.