Analyzing digital propaganda and conflict rhetoric: a study on Russia’s bot-driven campaigns and counter-narratives during the Ukraine crisis

Abstract The dissemination of disinformation has become a formidable weapon, with nation-states exploiting social media platforms to engineer narratives favorable to their geopolitical interests. This study delved into Russia’s orchestrated disinformation campaign, in three times periods of the 2022 Russian-Ukraine War: its incursion, its midpoint and the Ukrainian Kherson counteroffensive. This period is marked by a sophisticated blend of bot-driven strategies to mold online discourse. Utilizing a dataset derived from Twitter, the research examines how Russia leveraged automated agents to advance its political narrative, shedding light on the global implications of such digital warfare and the swift emergence of counter-narratives to thwart the disinformation campaign. This paper introduces a methodological framework that adopts a multiple-analysis model approach, initially harnessing unsupervised learning techniques, with TweetBERT for topic modeling, to dissect disinformation dissemination within the dataset. Utilizing Moral Foundation Theory and the BEND Framework, this paper dissects social-cyber interactions in maneuver warfare, thereby understanding the evolution of bot tactics employed by Russia and its counterparts within the Russian-Ukraine crisis. The findings highlight the instrumental role of bots in amplifying political narratives and manipulating public opinion, with distinct strategies in narrative and community maneuvers identified through the BEND framework. Moral Foundation Theory reveals how moral justifications were embedded in these narratives, showcasing the complexity of digital propaganda and its impact on public perception and geopolitical dynamics. The study shows how pro-Russian bots were used to foster a narrative of protection and necessity, thereby seeking to legitimize Russia’s actions in Ukraine whilst degrading both NATO and Ukraine’s actions. Simultaneously, the study explores the resilient counter-narratives of pro-Ukraine forces, revealing their strategic use of social media platforms to counteract Russian disinformation, foster global solidarity, and uphold democratic narratives. These efforts highlight the emerging role of social media as a digital battleground for narrative supremacy, where both sides leverage information warfare tactics to sway public opinion.