Integrating geospatial intelligence and spatio-temporal modeling for monitoring tourism-related carbon emissions in the United States

Purpose This study explores the spatial and temporal relationship between tourism activities and transportation-related carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in the United States (US) from 2003 to 2022 using advanced geospatial modeling techniques. Design/methodology/approach The research integrated geographic information systems (GIS) to map tourist attractions against high-resolution annual emissions data. The analysis covered 3,108 US counties, focusing on county-level attraction densities and annual on-road CO 2 emission patterns. Advanced spatial analysis techniques, including bivariate mapping and local bivariate relationship testing, were employed to assess potential correlations. Findings The findings reveal limited evidence of significant associations between tourism activities and transportation-based CO 2 emissions around major urban centers, with decreases observed in Eastern states and the Midwest, particularly in non-coastal areas, from 2003 to 2022. Most counties (86.03%) show no statistically significant relationship between changes in tourism density and on-road CO 2 emissions. However, 1.90% of counties show a positive linear relationship, 2.64% a negative linear relationship, 0.29% a concave relationship, 1.61% a convex relationship and 7.63% a complex, undefined relationship. Despite this, the 110% national growth in tourism output and resource consumption from 2003–2022 raises potential sustainability concerns. Practical implications To tackle sustainability issues in tourism, policymakers and stakeholders can integrate emissions accounting, climate modeling and sustainability governance. Effective interventions are vital for balancing tourism demands with climate resilience efforts promoting social equity and environmental justice. Originality/value This study’s innovative application of geospatial modeling and comprehensive spatial analysis provides new insights into the complex relationship between tourism activities and CO 2 emissions. The research highlights the challenges in isolating tourism’s specific impacts on emissions and underscores the need for more granular geographic assessments or comprehensive emission inventories to fully understand tourism’s environmental footprint.