Synoptic and Mesoscale Dynamics of Cold Surges Over the South China Sea and Their Control on Extreme Rainfall

Abstract We investigate the synoptic and mesoscale dynamics of two wet and two dry cold surges in January 2021 using a combination of observations, reanalysis, and convective‐scale model forecasts from the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM). We focus on the wet surges, and particularly the wettest days which are locally extreme over Singapore and the surrounding region (i.e., the daily mean and area‐averaged rainfall over 20 years exceeds the 99th percentile). On the large scale, the wet surges are characterized by an anomalously strong anticyclone over Siberia prior to their onset. The anticyclone and resultant surge winds are stronger than those of the dry surges. There is also a relatively moist (dry) environment prior to the onset of the wet (dry) surges, with the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) being in Phase 3 (Phase 6). On the mesoscale, the combination of the cold surge and a local tropical low produce strong, moist north‐easterly winds and convection over the Singapore region. The equatorward advection of positive anomalies of equivalent potential temperature resembles a weak gravity‐current‐like structure at its head, although the spatial scale is much too large for a gravity current. There is a moist bias in the model forecasts, although the precipitation is underestimated regionally during the wet surges and particularly on the extreme rainfall days. Overall, the model forecasts perform well synoptically but not in the details of mesoscale convection.