Estimated mortality attributable to the urban heat island during the record-breaking 2022 heatwave in London

The United Kingdom experienced its most extreme heatwave to date during late July 2022, with maximum air temperatures exceeding 40 °C recorded for the first time in history on July 19th. High ambient temperatures have been statistically shown to lead to increased mortality. Higher nighttime temperatures that occur in more urbanised areas, called the urban heat island (UHI), may contribute to the mortality burden of heat. In this study, we applied health impact assessment methods with advanced urban climate modelling to estimate what contribution the UHI had on the mortality impact of the 10-25 July 2022 heatwave in Greater London. Estimated mortality due to heat and due to the UHI were compared with estimated mortality due to air pollution in the same period, based on monitored concentrations. We estimate that of the 1773 deaths in Greater London in this period 370 (95% confidence interval 328-410) could be attributed to heat. We estimate that 38% of these heat-related deaths could be attributed to the UHI. In the same period is estimate deaths attributable to PM2.5 were 20.6 (10.4-30.8) and to ozone were 52.3 (95% confidence interval 18.6-85.2). Despite not contributing to the record-breaking maximum air temperature observed during this period, the UHI may have contributed to the heatwave's mortality burden through raised nighttime temperature. While air pollutant concentrations were elevated during the period, deaths attributable to air pollution were relatively few compared to deaths attributable to heat.