Multi‐energy system horizon planning: Early decarbonisation in China avoids stranded assets

Abstract An appropriate decarbonisation pathway is crucial to achieving carbon neutrality in China before 2060. This paper studies decarbonisation pathways for China's energy system between 2020 and 2060 using an open, provincial, and hourly resolved, networked model within the context of multi‐period planning with myopic investment foresight. Two representative decarbonisation pathways are compared, with particular attention to the synergies of coupling the electricity and heating sectors. An early and steady path in which emissions are strongly reduced in the first decade is more cost‐effective than following a late and rapid path. Early decarbonisation in the electricity sector avoids stranded investments in fossil infrastructure and preserves the carbon budget for later emissions in the difficult‐to‐decarbonise heating sector. Retrofitting the existing coal power plants by adding carbon capture facilities is cost‐effective in both decarbonisation pathways. The hourly and non‐interrupted resolution for a full weather year reveals the balancing strategies of highly renewable, sector‐coupled systems. The significant seasonal variation of heat demand dominates long‐term storage behaviours.