Estimation of Incoming Sediments and Useful Life of Haditha Reservoir with Limited Measurements Using Hydrological Modeling

Many dammed reservoirs in dry climate conditions witness high sediment inflow rates due to higher soil erodibility, yet there are limited actual sediment influx measurements. Therefore, this study first applies the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model to simulate reservoir sedimentation inflow to the Haditha Reservoir. Next, utilizing sediment inflows estimated by the SWAT model, the Trap Efficiency Function (TEF) is employed to estimate its remaining storage capacity and its useful life at multiple reservoir water levels. Calibration (1986–1997) and validation (1998–2007) of the SWAT model were conducted at three streamflow gaging stations and one sediment station located upstream of the reservoir. Results show that the SWAT model performed better during calibration than during the validation period for all streamflow and sediment gaging stations. In addition, modeled streamflow and sediment predictions were relatively more accurate on a monthly scale than on a daily scale. Simulated daily sediment inflow to the reservoir demonstrates slightly lower accuracy than daily streamflow, where the Coefficient of Determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values are 0.34 and 0.32 in the case of sediment load, compared to 0.39 and 0.33 for streamflow, respectively. Reservoir storage capacity for the period (1986–2005) shows a continuous decrease with time at all reservoir water levels, which indicates an increase in sediment accumulation. According to measurements taken between 1986 and 2005, sediment accumulation has reduced the reservoir’s capacity by approximately 15% at a water level of 112 m (the lowest water level in the reservoir). During the same period, the storage capacity loss at 147 m (the design working water level in the reservoir) was calculated to be 35%. Over 19 years of operation (1986–2005) at the 147-m water level, the total sediment buildup in the reservoir is estimated at 3.2 million tons. Notably, about one-third of this sediment was deposited in the five-year span from 2000 to 2005.