Selection and Optimization of China’s Energy Transformation Pathway Under Carbon-Neutral Targets

This paper uses a bottom-up national energy technology model to study the optimization of China’s energy transformation pathway. The model clarifies specific action plans for China’s energy transformation pathway from 2020 to 2060, total carbon emissions, industry emission reduction responsibilities, and other dimensions. The results show that: (1) The proportion of renewable energy consumption in China’s entire energy system from 2020 to 2060 will gradually exceed that of fossil energy under ideal circumstances, and the energy system will transition from traditional fossil energy to renewable energy. Meanwhile, the proportion of low-carbon energy sources, such as renewable energy, in primary energy demand will jump from 15.9% in 2020 to over 80% by 2060. (2) China’s CO2 emissions will be approximately 3 billion tons, 2 billion tons, and 1 billion tons under three different socio-economic development scenarios of low, medium, and high speed in 2060. At that time, China will still need to absorb CO2 through carbon sinks in forests, oceans, and wetlands. (3) The electricity industry has the highest CO2 emissions compared to other industries. The electricity industry must bear significant responsibility for carbon reduction in future energy transformation and economic development.